14/06/2006

Princely power to test succession plans

The ‘shepherd’ whose guidance and leadership Saudi religious scholars in the past called upon the population to follow, is no more. It is not the case that nobody is fulfilling this role. Instead, a leadership which was once identifiable in the person of a single individual is now diffuse, having been divided between the five most powerful leaders: King Abdullah and his four most powerful brothers or their children.

This change was consolidated under the reign of King Fahd, but was sealed when Abdullah became king. With his primacy as head of state, but also with his control of the National Guard and the tribal population that constitutes the bulk of this paramilitary force, King Abdullah controls a formidable part of the Saudi power structure.

But existing alongside the power of the monarch are those grouped around Prince Nayef, the interior minister. Employing 500,000 people, they control the security and intelligence apparatus, and demand total loyalty from every official. As powerful – in part thanks to budget which is thought have topped $18bn in 2004 – are those led by Prince Sultan, the defence minister and Crown Prince.